Australian Open Predictions from the Poison Pen of Unforced Error!! (II)

Same format as the women's!

Roger Federer (1) v. Tomas Berdych (13)

As with the women's top seed Roger Federer's draw, at least on paper, looks to be a fairly favourable one until at least the quarter finals. He does face a possible rematch with John Isner from the United States in the second round. Isner was able to take a set from Roger last year at the US Open so it could be a match that draws more attention than the average second round match for Roger. Tomas Berdych is a solid player but as Roger Rasheed (former coach of Lleyton Hewitt) said "he doesn't like to get dirty" I'm guessing by that Roger means he tends to fade when the going gets tough. He does have a win over Roger at the 2004 Olympics but given his record in big matches since then the odds are certainly against him repeating that feat this year.

James Blake (12) v. Fernando Gonzalez (7)

The runner up from 2007 has been handed an unenviable task of defending his points this year. If he can get through his section of the draw - full of players who can defeat him - he faces a quarter final meeting with Roger. His form at the Kooyong event was horrible so he has a mammoth task if he is to repeat this year. If James Blake can keep his mind clear and errors to a minimum he could be the guy to advance from this section. He too has struggled in the lead up and his record at majors is not spectacular but maybe this new Plexicushion surface will do him a couple of favours with his slice and volley. The other player to watch is Ivan Ljubicic. His grand slam record is mediocre for a player of his calibre so he is due a good result. He definitely has the game.

Novak Djokovic (3) v. Marcos Baghdatis (15)

The toughest section of the draw without a doubt. Included are 2 former champions (Safin and Johansson), 2 runners up (Hewitt and Baghdatis) and the current world #3 and US Open runner up Djokovic. Hovering close by is Dimitri Tursunov the winner of the Medibank International this week. There is no doubt that whoever can come through this small section of the draw will be playing well. After watching Tursunov play in Sydney I have to give him a good chance. Novak is confident and has a huge amount of self belief - as does Hewitt. Baghdatis is a freakishly talented player who is capable of just about anything and always receives passionate support from the locals. Safin is an enigma but I'm guessing that his latest complaint that the courts are too blue is a good indication that he isn't in a particularly good headspace so I expect Baghdatis to defeat him him the 2nd round if his own head doesn't do him in during the first round.

David Nalbandian (10) v. David Ferrer (5)

The David Section. It's their party and no one else is invited?? I don't know about that. Radek Stepanek, Juan Martin Del Potro, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Nicolas Kiefer (if he's in a good mood!) could all threaten for a spot in the second week. Nalbandian is under an injury cloud and Ferrer didn't exactly set the world on fire in Auckland. This section is very open. I think a surprise may come from here.

Richard Gasquet (8) v. Andy Murray (9)

Murray is involved in what appears to be the highlight of the first round. His centre court match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Day 1 should be a real treat for all tennis fans and a real test of Andy's questionable temperament. It would be great for the event if both Murray and Gasquet could make it to their predicted 4th round encounter. I think it will be a sneak peek of the future with both players surely going to be contesting Grand Slam events well into the second week in the years to come. Aside from Tsonga there appears to be few players who could pull off an upset but never say never in men's tennis considering the depth. Gasquet faces an early threat in Feliciano Lopez from Spain but should win through to the anticipated clash with Murray.

Mikhail Youzhny (14) v. Nikolay Davydenko (4)

This section contains 2 tournaments winners from the first week of this year in Youzhny and Llodra, Davydenko and big serving Karlovic as the main contenders. Other players who are very capable of making their way through to at least the 3rd or 4th round would be Andreas Seppi, Stanislas Wawrinka, Julien Benneteau, Nicolas Mahut and Jose Acasuso. Davydenko has appeared to be a little distracted by the match fixing controversy surrounding him and any of the players listed above have a good opportunity to make a Grand Slam quarter final. This section has proven to be the hardest for me to pick potential winners in.

Andy Roddick (6) v. Tommy Robredo (11)

A great draw for Roddick. It is really his to lose and after seeing his form at Kooyong this week it's hard to see anyone from this section being able to prevent him from setting up a quarter final match with Nadal. I would look for Jarkko Neiminen or Mardy Fish to be his main challengers in what appears to be one of the weaker sections of the draw. I feel bad not writing more about the bottom two sections of the draw but really there isn't much to say. Let's hope that as the matches begin the tennis is of a better quality that it appears it be on paper!

Carlos Moya (16) v. Rafael Nadal (2)

Another really weak section of the draw that should see Nadal make it through to the quarter finals. Despite doubts about his fitness Rafa remains confident he can push to win another Grand Slam and he should be able to make it through this section even if he is a little under done. Carlos Moya pushed him to 3 tiebreak sets in Chennai 2 weeks ago but over 5 sets you have to side with youth. It's hard to see any other result barring any major upsets along the way. Being so early in the year nothing is impossible.

My Predictions

QTR
Federer v. Blake
Djokovic v. Ferrer
Murray v. Wawrinka
Roddick v. Nadal

SEMI
Federer v. Djokovic
Murray v. Roddick

FINAL
Federer v. Murray

WINNER
Federer

Australian Open Predictions from the Poison Pen of Unforced Error!!

I'm gonna break the draws down into the Rd of 16 match ups and look at the section of the draw they belong to. Hope that makes sense!

Justine Henin (1) v. Tatiana Golovin (13)

I expect that Justine will remain unchallenged until the semifinals. I don't consider Maria a really huge threat. Justine will have to play well be she has way to many shots and too many brains to be beaten by Maria on this new surface. The most interesting match in this first section has to be Emilie Loit versus Francesca Schiavone. Naturally it will be played out on Court 18 and will get no mention in the media but I can't say I am shocked about that. Women players outside the Top 6 are treated like second class citizens at the Slams by the media and probably always will be. Keen tennis fans will be interested in that match however. It's about the only highlight in that section. Justine could probably get through playing left handed.

Elena Dementieva (13) v. Maria Sharapova (5)

The most anticipated match up in the first week in the women's draw will potentially come out of this section. If Lindsay Davenport and Maria Sharapova win their first matches they will play in the second round. Lindsay was the dangerous floater and Maria was unlucky to score that prize. I have this feeling that Lindsay is perhaps still a little underdone to win at the absolute top level but it will be fascinating to see how Maria handles the challenge this early. I only hope it lives up to expectations. I can't wait! I expect Maria to come out of this section to face Justine in the quarterfinals but maybe Dementieva will continue to surprise me and get yet another big win over a higher ranked opponent. (Yes, I do think she is overrated!)

Jelena Jankovic (3) v. Patty Schnyder (15)

Throw in a couple of french players named Mauresmo and Razzano and this section begins to look like one of the most interesting. Jankovic is the favoured player but what I have seen of her already this summer she isn't looking at her best. I am sure the injury at the Hopman Cup didn't help and she will have her work cut out for her from the very first match. Tamara Paszek is potentially a Top 10 player and if Jelena doesn't bring her 'A' game to that match she could be a first round casualty. Mauresmo has had a tough lead up (more leg injury worries for Amelie) but this surface should suit her game well considering how nicely slice and volleys seem to take to this court. I wouldn't be surprised to see Amelie come out of this section to make the quarter finals.

Nicole Vaidisova (12) v. Serena Williams (7)

Serena is a popular choice to defend her title this year. Fitter than she has been in a long time I cannot label her as anything other than a serious threat. No doubt Justine's #1 threat. Vaidisova played well in Sydney but I can't see her beating Serena. It will be interesting to see if Alicia Molik can win her first match to set up a meeting with Vaidisova. I would give Alicia a small chance with the home court advantage. Zvonereva must be in serious doubt after injuring herself in Hobart. Last seen on crutches it would appear unlikely that she will take her place in the draw.

Venus Williams (8) v. Marion Bartoli (10)

Venus should have no trouble getting through her first 3 matches to set up a potential Wimbledon final repeat with Marion but I still think Marion could struggle regardless of her opponent. Her fitness or lack thereof should surely count against her in the Australian sun. Watch out for Camille Pin as a second round opponent for Venus. She probably won't win but I like her game and she should give Venus a really good match.

Dinara Safina (16) v. Ana Ivanovic (4)

As far as I can tell temperamental behaviour runs in the family Safin/Safina. Dinara is such a capable player but drops the ball (excuse the pun!) way to often for someone with her physique and ability. Heinz Gunthardt is her coach now, I don't know for how long but maybe his influence can help her but probably not this week. Ivanovic is supremely talented but a bit like Safina tends to lose the plot out there. However if she can contain her errors and get on a roll with her serve she could potentially make the final here. She has a great draw! It's the time to start playing as well has her Q rating is performing. Her choice of Yonex racquets makes me happy. I love my Yonex!

Anna Chadkvetadze (6) v. Daniela Hantuchova (9)

The section of tears. OK that's mean - Daniela doesn't cry anymore and I hope she uses her new found form and confidence to knock out one of the most grating players on the tour out of the tournament before the end of the first week. Chadkvetadze has an annoying name, an annoyingly boring game, an annoying Anna Kournikova ponytail and an annoying penchant for acting like a child when things aren't going her way. Don't even get me started on her father/coach. Apparently her pet peeve is mean people! I guess I'm now a pet peeve! The sooner she falls the better - Go Andrea Petrovic!!

Nadia Petrova (14) v. Svetlana Kuznetsova (2)

Nadia Petrova is actually playing?? I can't remember the last time I heard anything about her. I am surprised she is seeded!! Good luck to her - she's a fun player to watch when she is playing well. If Svetlana can somehow find a way to not convince herself she shouldn't beat Natalie Dechy she should sail through this quarter to the semis. She's an amazing athlete and player but I can't help but think she doesn't believe she should beat the top ranked players. How she gets into that head space with her ability is beyond me. This draw could favour her and if she can make the final I hope she really believes she deserves to be there and she can win it!! Go Sveta! Make Emilio proud!

My Predictions

QTR

Henin v. Sharapova

Mauresmo v. S. Williams

V. Williams v. Ivanovic

Hantuchova v. Kuznetsova

SEMI

Henin v. S. Williams

Ivanovic v. Kuznetsova

FINAL

S. Williams v. Ivanovic

WINNER

S. Williams

My Lleyton Dilemma.

My sister made an interesting observation about Lleyton Hewitt today as we were discussing his latest loss. She wonders whether he is so concerned about the process of being a 'tennis player' that he has actually forgotten how to go out there and simply enjoy himself. Considering how tightly wound he gets on the court when things aren't going his way I have to think that perhaps my sister is close to the mark in her assessment. It's hard being everything you want to be, everything everybody else wants you to be and then some. The Australia summer tournaments only heighten the expectation so is it any wonder it usually ends in disappointment for Lleyton. Perhaps the guy is human afterall.

As an Australian tennis fan I find the hardest part of my job is to keep coming up with reasons to cheer him. One minute I love him, the next I want to throw things at him. As with all Aussie sporting teams and champions Lleyton seems to only really get respect from fans here if he is winning matches. If he strikes out a couple of times at major events the knives start digging in and I will be honest - my knife has been sharpened on occasion and used on a few more. I hate bagging the guy but sometimes he makes it hard to love him. Sometimes I wonder if his mother even loves him. It's not so much that he is simply losing it's more the manner, both physically and mentally, that he loses. I watched him play Chris Guccione at the Medibank International yesterday and found myself once again lamenting the opportunities he refused to take (kudos to Guccione on a great match by the way!). When Little Lleyton comes up against a flashy big hitter (as he has in the past 2 weeks) he seem ill equipt to a) deal with their power and b) adjust his game accordingly and the big one - take some risks of his own. Sure, Lleyton would counter that by saying that it's not in his nature on a tennis court to take those big risks he all about the consistency, counter punching and wearing down of an opponent. Unfortunately for Lleyton the game has changed in the last 5-10 years and now we have big, powerful, flashy players who aren't gonna miss as often as they used to and the Lleyton's of this world are being hit off the court.

I was a little confused when Lleyton declared that he was the better player in yesterday's match. A little wishful thinking on his part. I would love to know his first serve percentage to start with!

If I had a dollar for everytime I have screamed "hit your backhand down the line" during a viewing of a Lleyton match I would be a millionaire many times over (that's how many of his matches I've watched!). Hewitt keeps talking about making subtle changes to his game under the guidance of Australian tennis legend and much respected tennis coach Tony Roche but perhaps subtle is not enough if the results from the last 2 weeks are anything to go by. I am now beginning to fear that his game can no longer cut the mustard - so to speak. Some Australian journalists and tennis experts are still predicting great things for Hewitt and I have still hoped in the past few years that he can find his way back to the top but perhaps the game has surpassed Lleyton Hewitt (as a top ten player anyway) with it's tall, strong flashy players, slow medium courts and heavy tennis balls.

Even if Lleyton were to find a way to get more first serves in, play closer to the baseline, avoid rallying down the center of the court with the ball bouncing short of the service line, employs his excellent slice backhand and underappreciated volleying skills and hit his damn backhand down the line more often it's still hard to see him finding a place in the Top Ten right now. There's Roger, Rafa, Andy, Novak, Andy Braveheart not to mention a myriad of talented players outside that group who all strike the ball with more authority and strength than Lleyton. His competitive edge was always his unnerving approach to the battle at hand. He would run all day, abuse linesmen, shout 'come ons' - he was tennis' bulldog and it intimidated a lot of his fellow players. But along with change in the game came changes to Lleyton's life as well. Marriage and fatherhood with Aussie actress Bec Cartwright. Although he's still a grumpy SOB most of the time there is now a softer side to Lleyton, whether he is willing to admit it or not. His focus is not 100% on tennis any longer and quite frankly it shouldn't be. He's a dad and by all accounts a great one at that. His attentiveness to Mia during a TV interview at Wimbledon last year was touching and more and more often you are seeing a smile on the face of Lleyton and it's good to see but has that smile been robbing him of his intensity as a tennis player?? Is he genuinely torn about where his priorities lie?? Could one even theorise that this could be causing him to be overly concerned with the in's and out's of his job rather than simply enjoying his tennis?? His life is really full right now - it shouldn't be considered a bad thing but it must weigh on him heavily.

I'll keep cheering and jeering him - he's the kind of player who does that to you but perhaps my next knife will be sharpened with a different perspective!

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Wonders may never cease: Radek Stepanek is Nicole Vaidisova's new boyfriend!!

42 Nanograms per millimetre.

I have just finished reading the Martina Hingis Tribunal Decision posted on the ITF website (all 46 pages of it!!) and am really quite torn on what to think about the case and the impact it will inevitably have on Martina's legacy both as a player and a person. From what I can gather Martina and her team presented a thorough defence but the conclusion reached by the tribunal is one that is hard to come to terms with. Apparently it was a simple, straight forward decision in the end. To me that's an insult to Martina and the drug testing procedures in tennis actually.

The onus is on the athlete to prove their innocence. As the tested procedure stands any athlete that tests positive is essentially guilty until proven innocent and history has shown that it is rare that any athlete can successfully defend a positive test and Martina was no exception to that statistic. She couldn't conclusively prove that she did not knowingly take the drug. To do this she had to prove how she accidentally or unknowingly ingested it. I ask you this - if you unknowingly ingest something how can you then present a defence where you prove how you unknowingly ingested such substance?? Sort of like if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it fall does it make a sound!!

Martina's sample measured at 42 nanograms per millimetre. I, like many, have really no idea what this really means or the science behind it but as an average lay person you can only imagine my shock when I then read that in her defence Martina's team called upon the measure at which a positive test for cocaine is reported in the US army. They don't bother with any action against their employees until they test at 15o nanograms or above. That's over 3 times the level that Martina tested.

I also have to ask why is cocaine actually on the banned list. Honestly, if any athlete wishes to go out onto the court 'high' on cocaine, they are welcome to it. It's the height of idiocy and an extreme risk to their health and (although I am no expert) I hazard a guess that it probably won't enhance their performance?? Or does playing as high as a kite actually help?? It sure didn't help Martina that day at Wimbledon as she flatly exited the tournament losing to the poor man's Amy Frazier, ex Stanford student Laura Granville.

Could it be possible that Martina ingested the cocaine by touching a 5 pound note? Her results certainly suggests that however she did ingest the drug it wasn't very much or it was quite a while before she played against Granville. Is Martina's explanation that she probably ingested it unknowingly in some random food or drink good enough? Clearly not for the ITF or the growing chorus of people who are now willing to accept that she is a coke head and get a giggle from the irony that she tested positive when the test was carried out by a Mr and Mrs Snowball (I kid not! Read the tribunal document!)

Martina tested positive. She presented her defence which (in fairness to the tribunal panel) was all extremely circumstantial and she was found guilty of the offence and banned for 2 years. Apparently (but really anything but) a pretty straight forward, simple decision. I'm guessing Martina and her fans don't see it that way and it will unfortunately taint the career and character of one of tennis' most enigmatic and popular characters of all time. All for 42 nanograms per millimetre..... I wonder if the coke even noticed it was being snorted!

My 2008 Tennis Wish List.

1. That Roger Federer continues to be glorious.

2. That Nikolai Davydenko gets a pardon from the Russian Mafia godfather and we don't have to talk about match fixing in tennis anymore.

3. That Jelena Jankovic realises that she isn't going to win a slam if she can't serve.

4. That Lleyton Hewitt starts walking instead of talking.

5. That Maria Sharapova can actually account for all the dollars she is given for apparently being a "superstar" of tennis. How many slams did she win last year??? I forget!

6. That tennis commentators try to find a way to not piss me off this year. Sometimes the mute button is my best friend. I would marry Jim Courier tomorrow if he asked however. Is that wrong??

7. I know she's already been hung, drawn and quartered over it but I hope that the ITF further investigate the drug charges against Martina Hingis. Call me naive but I smell a rat. I still can't get my head around it. She may be a bit silly, naive and a little ignorant (at times) but I refuse to believe she is that stupid. It would seem that most people in tennis agree with me and this guilty until proven innocent philosophy applied to drugs in sport is just plain ridiculous and unproductive!

8. That Hawkeye continue its winning streak against players. Come on, it's funny watching players getting it wrong! '

9. That Roger cries again. It makes me love him even more!

10. That Rafa Nadal and Maria Sharapova et al realise that a limit of 20 seconds between points isn't optional.

11. That Venus and Serena continue to win Grand Slam tournaments. Tennis is better when they do!